Opening Statement from the May 2015 CCPM Forecaster
First published on May 3, 2015 for subscribers to the CCPM Forecaster
We see no material changes in the global economy relative to the past few months. Although we do not anticipate the weakness in Europe, Latin America, South Africa, Russia, Australia, Canada and many parts of Asia to subside anytime real soon, we believe many of these economies are likely to show some relative strength in the second half of this year.
It is not difficult to appreciate the cumulative downward pressure being exerted on commodities as a result of monetary policy and other macroeconomic trends throughout the globe.
Even without a global recession, we have now raised the odds to 65% (from 60%) that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until 2016. We give about the same odds of a rate increase in Q4 2015.
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